• If you are wondering whether Intel's share price still offers value after a strong run, this breakdown will help you see how the current price stacks up against several common valuation lenses.
• Intel's recent share performance has been strong, with returns of 45.2% over 7 days, 130.0% over 30 days, 140.6% year to date, 371.4% over 1 year, 216.7% over 3 years, and 83.2% over 5 years, all from a last close of US$94.75.
• Recent coverage of Intel has focused on how these returns fit within longer term expectations for the business and the broader semiconductor space. Headlines have also highlighted how the current share price informs views on risk, potential reward, and whether investors are paying up or still getting what they consider to be a reasonable entry point.
• Intel currently has a valuation score of 1 out of 6. Next comes a look at how methods like DCF, multiples, and fair value estimates compare, along with a different way of thinking about valuation that pulls these pieces together by the end of the article.

Intel scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Intel Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company might be worth by projecting its future cash flows, then discounting those back to today to reflect the time value of money and risk.

For Intel, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is a loss of around US$10.1b. Analysts provide free cash flow estimates out to 2030, with US$16.2b projected for that year. Simply Wall St then extrapolates further out to 2035 using these inputs.

When all projected cash flows from 2026 to 2035 are discounted back and combined, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of US$50.54 per share. Against the recent share price of US$94.75, this implies the stock is around 87.5% above the DCF estimate. On this measure Intel screens as expensive rather than cheap right now.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Intel may be overvalued by 87.5%. Discover 52 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Approach 2: Intel Price vs Sales

For companies where earnings are weak or volatile, revenue can often give a cleaner read on valuation, so the P/S ratio is a useful cross check on what you are paying for each dollar of sales.

Growth expectations and risk still matter here, because investors usually accept a higher P/S for businesses they expect to grow faster or view as lower risk, and a lower P/S where growth is modest or uncertainty is higher.

Intel currently trades on a P/S of 8.86x, compared with the Semiconductor industry average of 6.88x and a peer group average of 22.80x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Intel is 8.06x, which is a proprietary estimate of what the P/S might be given factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margin, market cap and specific risks.

This Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple peer or industry comparison because it adjusts for Intel’s own growth outlook, profitability profile and scale, rather than assuming that all semiconductor companies deserve the same multiple.

Since Intel’s actual P/S of 8.86x is above the Fair Ratio of 8.06x, the shares screen as overvalued on this measure.

Result: OVERVALUED

P/S ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 17 top founder-led companies.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Intel Narrative

Earlier the article mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. This is where Narratives come in, giving you a clear story behind the numbers by linking your view of Intel’s future revenue, earnings, margins and fair value to a transparent forecast. Narratives compare that fair value to today’s price to help frame potential buy or sell decisions. They update automatically as news and earnings arrive, and sit inside Simply Wall St’s Community page as easy-to-use templates. One Intel Narrative might see fair value near US$11.35 based on concerns about foundry and competition, while another might see fair value closer to US$79.00 based on confidence in the product roadmap and industry recovery, allowing you to choose the version of Intel’s story that best matches your own research and risk tolerance.

Do you think there's more to the story for Intel? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.