• If you are wondering whether Walmart's current share price still offers value after a strong run, this article walks through what that price might be implying and how that stacks up against a few common valuation checks.
• Walmart shares last closed at US$122.99, with a 7 day return of an 8.1% decline, a 30 day return of 4.5%, a year to date return of 9.1%, a 1 year return of 31.0% and a 3 year return that is very large compared to the starting point.
• Recent headlines around Walmart have focused on its position in US consumer retail and how investors are weighing its scale and brand against ongoing competition from both traditional retailers and e commerce platforms. These stories help explain why the stock has seen a mix of short term pullbacks alongside strong longer term returns.
• On our framework, Walmart currently scores 0 out of 6 on undervaluation checks. In the sections that follow we look at how different valuation methods interpret that score and then finish with one more way to think about what the market might be pricing in.

Walmart scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Walmart Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a business could be worth today by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to the present.

For Walmart, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The company’s latest twelve month free cash flow is about US$16.8b. Analysts have provided free cash flow estimates for several years ahead, and Simply Wall St extrapolates beyond that, with projected free cash flow of US$39.1b in 2031. Those future figures are discounted back using the model’s assumptions to convert them into today’s dollars.

Putting all of those discounted cash flows together, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of US$122.62 per share. Compared with the recent share price of US$122.99, the model suggests the stock is around 0.3% overvalued, which is effectively a tight range around the current market price.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

Walmart is fairly valued according to our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), but this can change at a moment's notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act.

Approach 2: Walmart Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like Walmart, the P/E ratio is a useful way to gauge what you are paying for each dollar of earnings. It links the share price directly to current earnings, which many investors use as a quick yardstick for what the market is willing to pay for the business today.

What counts as a “normal” P/E depends a lot on growth expectations and perceived risk. Higher expected earnings growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher multiple, while slower growth or higher risk typically point to a lower one. So context matters when you look at any single P/E figure.

Walmart currently trades on a P/E of 44.77x. That is above the Consumer Retailing industry average of 21.92x and also higher than the peer group average of 29.17x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Walmart is 38.25x. This Fair Ratio is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E “should” be, given factors like earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and company specific risks.

Compared with simple industry or peer comparisons, the Fair Ratio aims to be more tailored because it adjusts for Walmart’s own characteristics rather than treating all retailers as identical. The current P/E of 44.77x sits above the 38.25x Fair Ratio, which points to the shares trading on a richer multiple than that model would suggest.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Walmart Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, which are simple stories you create about a company like Walmart that connect your view of its future revenue, earnings and margins to a financial forecast and then to a Fair Value you can set against today’s price.

On Simply Wall St, Narratives live in the Community page and are designed to be easy to use. You can plug in your assumptions, get an instant Fair Value, and see how that compares with the current share price. This can help you decide whether the stock looks attractive, fully priced or expensive based on your own reasoning rather than a single P/E number.

Because Narratives update when new information such as earnings, news or guidance is added to the platform, your Walmart story does not stay static. You can see in real time how different views line up. For example, one community member currently sees Fair Value at about US$126.87 while another sets it closer to US$71.70. This shows how two investors can look at the same company, tell different stories and reach very different conclusions about what the shares are worth.

For Walmart, however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Walmart Narratives:

Fair value in this narrative: US$129.03

Implied discount to that fair value at the last close of US$122.99: about 4.7% undervalued

Revenue growth assumption: 5.05%

• Focuses on omni channel retail, rapid delivery and AI tools across stores, e commerce and logistics to keep customers engaged and operations efficient.
• Highlights higher margin areas like advertising, marketplace services and memberships, alongside growth in markets such as China, Mexico and India.
• Flags risks around e commerce profitability, tariffs, wage and claims costs, intense competition and the challenges of expanding in complex international markets.

Fair value in this narrative: US$71.70

Implied premium to that fair value at the last close of US$122.99: about 41.7% overvalued

Revenue growth assumption: 4.40%

• Sees Walmart as a strong business investing heavily in automation, its own cloud platform and new delivery methods, but questions whether these benefits are already reflected in the share price.
• Assumes revenue growth in line with the wider market, with margin gains from automation and e commerce capped over time and valued on a lower future P/E of 22x.
• Emphasizes risks such as labour cost pressure, international exposure, automation execution, supply chain complexity and recent insider selling as reasons to be cautious at current levels.

If you want to see how other investors are framing Walmart, or even build your own story using your assumptions, the Community Narratives tool lets you compare these views side by side and track how they change as new data comes in. Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives

Do you think there's more to the story for Walmart? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.