• On 11 August 2026, On Holding AG reported second-quarter sales of CHF 850.3 million and net income of CHF 105.0 million, reversing a net loss a year earlier and reaffirming full-year 2026 guidance for low-20% constant-currency sales growth.
• The results highlighted a sharp shift toward higher-margin direct-to-consumer sales and tighter control of wholesale shipments to protect premium pricing, even at the expense of headline revenue momentum.
• Now we’ll examine how prioritizing direct-to-consumer growth and pricing discipline could reshape On Holding’s previously growth-focused investment narrative.

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On Holding Investment Narrative Recap

To own On Holding, you need to believe that its premium brand, product innovation and shift toward higher margin direct to consumer sales can support disciplined, profitable growth. The latest results strengthen that case on margins but highlight a key short term tension: prioritizing price integrity and DTC mix versus headline revenue growth. The biggest near term risk remains that slower wholesale momentum, especially in the Americas, could weigh on sentiment if growth expectations stay elevated.

The most relevant update is management’s reaffirmed 2026 outlook for low 20 percent constant currency net sales growth, with direct to consumer expected to outpace wholesale in the second half. This guidance puts the recent slowdown in Americas wholesale into clearer context for the growth story: the main catalyst now is whether higher margin DTC gains and at least 65 percent gross margins can offset investor concerns about softer top line momentum.

Yet while premium pricing and a DTC driven margin story are appealing, investors should also be aware that...

On Holding's narrative projects CHF5.4 billion revenue and CHF661.8 million earnings by 2029. This requires 19.9% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about CHF411.5 million from CHF250.3 million today.

Uncover how On Holding's forecasts yield a $52.49 fair value, a 66% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the most optimistic analysts were assuming revenue could reach about CHF 6.0 billion and earnings roughly CHF 801.8 million by 2029, so if you are excited about On’s premium brand expansion and DTC mix shift you should also recognize that these higher expectations may prove too rosy after a guidance trim and wholesale slowdown, and be open to comparing that optimism with more cautious views before deciding what you believe.

Explore 15 other fair value estimates on On Holding - why the stock might be worth 11% less than the current price!

Form Your Own Verdict

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your On Holding research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free On Holding research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate On Holding's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.