Jeffrey Gundlach Warns Private Credit Is Echoing Dot-Com, 2008 Tremors

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PowerShares QQQ Trust,Series 1

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Jeffrey Gundlach thinks investors should start paying attention to the weeds. The so-called "Bond King" sparked debate this week after posting on X: "Watch out for market sectors and segments that have been growing like weeds in recent years. If something grows like a weed, it's probably a weed."

But the comment increasingly sounds less like a vague market warning and more like a broader late-cycle bubble call from Gundlach.

In a recent Bloomberg Television interview, Gundlach compared today's private credit boom to both the dot-com era and the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis, arguing that "it's all because the growth is so fast."

Fast Growth Becomes The Risk

Gundlach warned that periods of abundant liquidity often lead to capital being deployed "indiscriminately." This allows weak underwriting and excessive risk-taking to spread across markets.

That framework may extend far beyond private credit.

Some of Wall Street's biggest ETF winners over the past two years have been tied to the same high-growth themes now dominating investor flows, including the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ) , VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SMH) and iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector Index Fund (NASDAQ:SOXX).

Gundlach's warning also comes as AI-linked infrastructure, private credit, and leveraged growth trades continue to attract aggressive, momentum-driven capital.

The ‘Laundered Volatility’ Problem

One of Gundlach's sharpest critiques centered on what he called the illusion of stability in private markets.

"Everything's lower volatile if you don't market," he said. In other words, assets appear less volatile when they are not constantly priced by an open market.

That concern may resonate with investors piling into crowded growth trades through funds like the ARKK.

Notably, Gundlach said he still favors roughly 20% cash alongside commodities and gold exposure, including vehicles like the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (NYSE:DBC) and SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD).

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