Joby Aviation (JOBY) is in focus after announcing the first phase of a manufacturing joint venture with Toyota Motor Corporation to support commercial eVTOL production and to expand its planned air mobility services.

The Toyota joint venture comes after Joby Aviation showcased its eVTOL aircraft in New York City, and the stock has been volatile, with a 30 day share price return down 25.04%, a 90 day share price return up 7.86%, and a 1 year total shareholder return down 9.07%. This points to fading short term momentum but a less severe pullback over the longer period.

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With Joby Aviation now working with Toyota and the stock trading at a discount of about 25% to the average analyst price target of US$11.12, is there still an opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 19.8% Undervalued

Joby Aviation's most followed narrative sets a fair value of $11.12 per share against the last close at $8.92, framing the stock as trading below that central estimate while leaning heavily on long term air taxi assumptions.

The business model now spans manufacturing, a vertically integrated air taxi network, defense variants, autonomy software and Blade’s existing helicopter routes. This breadth of initiatives could stretch management focus, introduce integration risks and keep operating expenses elevated, which may weigh on future net margins and delay any path to sustained earnings.

Want to understand why this fair value still leans positive despite deep current losses and no near term profitability forecasted? The core of the narrative is an aggressive revenue ramp paired with a future profit margin shift that relies on scaling a new category of air mobility. Curious which assumptions around growth, margins and future valuation multiples have to hold to reach that $11.12 figure?

Result: Fair Value of $11.12 (UNDERVALUED)

However, several risks could still flip that Joby Aviation story, including potential delays in FAA certification and higher than expected cash burn before meaningful commercial revenue.

Another View: What Joby Aviation's P/B Ratio Is Telling You

Analysts see upside to Joby Aviation using a long term earnings model, but the current P/B ratio of 4.5x is more than double both the peer average of 2.2x and the Global Airlines average of 1.9x. That premium raises a simple question: how much execution risk are you willing to pay for?

Next Steps

Seen enough to form a first impression of Joby Aviation, or do you want to pressure test both sides of the story before it moves again? Take a closer look at the balance of upside potential and downside risk by checking the 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.