In 2025, humanoid robots are set to enter mass production, marking a significant shift from demonstration to practical application within the industry. Companies such as Unitree, Tesla, and FigureAI are driving commercial deliveries, ushering in an era of large-scale applications. The competition in the robotics sector is intensifying between the U.S. and global economies, with the U.S. government planning to issue an executive order to support this development.

Tesla's third-generation humanoid robot has showcased robust capabilities on complex terrains, clarifying its path to mass production. Chinese companies like Unitree Technology are advancing industrialization and capitalization through IPOs and mergers.

2026 is viewed as a pivotal year for robot commercialization, with the market demanding that companies demonstrate clear profitability paths. Morgan Stanley predicts that global robotics hardware sales will increase from $100 billion in 2025 to $500 billion by 2030, eventually reaching $25 trillion by 2050.

By 2050, an estimated 1.4 billion robots will be sold, with applications spanning industrial, service, and drone sectors. Global robot sales are expected to reach 90 million units by 2030 and increase to 600 million units by 2040, with significant market potential in small drones and household robots.

As the industry moves into mass production, the value of each segment is being reassessed. Precise manufacturing of core components, such as motors and reducers, is crucial for achieving cost reduction and enhancing efficiency. Technologies like dexterous hands and 3D vision sensors are gaining market attention. The integration of data collection and manufacturing capabilities is crucial, as large-scale production presents a significant challenge. Morgan Stanley has identified 100 companies worth watching in this sector.

Here are some U.S. stock concepts related to the humanoid robot sector for your reference:

Brain - Software and Core Computing:

• Foundation Models: Baidu, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A(BIDU.US), Meta Platforms(META.US), Alphabet Inc. Class C(GOOG.US), NVIDIA Corporation(NVDA.US), Microsoft Corporation(MSFT.US)
• Data Science and Analytics: Palantir Technologies Inc. Class A(PLTR.US), Oracle Corporation(ORCL.US), Microsoft Corporation(MSFT.US)
• Cybersecurity: Palo Alto Networks, Inc.(PANW.US), CyberArk Software Ltd.(CYBR.US)
• Simulation and Visual Software: Meta Platforms(META.US), Alphabet Inc. Class C(GOOG.US), NVIDIA Corporation(NVDA.US), Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.(TTWO.US), Roblox Corp. Class A(RBLX.US), Unity Software, Inc.(U.US), SIEMENS AG(SIEGY.US)
• Vision and Computing Chips: Intel Corporation(INTC.US), NVIDIA Corporation(NVDA.US), Mobileye Global, Inc. Class A(MBLY.US), QUALCOMM Incorporated(QCOM.US), Ambarella, Inc.(AMBA.US), Horizon Robotics
• Chip Design and Manufacturing: ARM Holdings PLC Sponsored ADR(ARM.US), Synopsys, Inc.(SNPS.US), Cadence Design Systems, Inc.(CDNS.US), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR(TSM.US), Intel Corporation(INTC.US)

Body - Hardware and Drive Components:

Actuators and Parts:

• Bearings: RBC Bearings Incorporated(RBC.US), Timken Company(TKR.US), Regal Rexnord Corporation(RRX.US)
• Reducers/Gears: Timken Company(TKR.US), Regal Rexnord Corporation(RRX.US)
• Integrated Actuators: Moog Inc. Class A(MOG.A.US), Regal Rexnord Corporation(RRX.US), Sanhua Intelligent Controls
• Motors: Sensata Technologies Holding PLC(ST.US), Regal Rexnord Corporation(RRX.US), RENESAS ELECTRONICS CORP(RNECY.US)
• Encoders: Novanta Inc(NOVT.US), Sensata Technologies Holding PLC(ST.US)
• Rare Earth/Magnets: MP Materials Corp Class A(MP.US), JL MAG

Sensors:

• Radar and Lidar: Magna International Inc.(MGA.US), Intel Corporation(INTC.US), Aptiv PLC(APTV.US), Teledyne Technologies Incorporated(TDY.US)
• Magnetic Sensors: Allegro MicroSystems, Inc.(ALGM.US) 
• Torque Sensors: Novanta Inc(NOVT.US), Sensata Technologies Holding PLC(ST.US), TE Connectivity plc(TEL.US)
• Vision Sensors: Teledyne Technologies Incorporated(TDY.US), Intel Corporation(INTC.US), ON Semiconductor Corporation(ON.US), TE Connectivity plc(TEL.US), Sony Group Corporation American Depositary Shares(SONY.US), RoboSense

Batteries: CATL

Analog Chips: Allegro MicroSystems, Inc.(ALGM.US), Analog Devices, Inc.(ADI.US), Texas Instruments Incorporated(TXN.US), STMicroelectronics NV Sponsored ADR RegS(STM.US), ON Semiconductor Corporation(ON.US), INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES AG(IFNNY.US), RENESAS ELECTRONICS CORP(RNECY.US)

Body/Wire Control/Cooling: Magna International Inc.(MGA.US), Amphenol Corporation Class A(APH.US), TE Connectivity plc(TEL.US), Aptiv PLC(APTV.US), Sanhua Intelligent Controls

Automation: Honeywell International Inc.(HON.US), Rockwell Automation, Inc.(ROK.US), SIEMENS AG(SIEGY.US)

Integrators - End Manufacturers:

Tesla Motors, Inc.(TSLA.US), Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Sponsored ADR(BABA.US), Amazon.com, Inc.(AMZN.US), Sony Group Corporation American Depositary Shares(SONY.US), Apple Inc.(AAPL.US), Toyota Motor Corp. Sponsored ADR(TM.US), Teledyne Technologies Incorporated(TDY.US), XPENG INC.(XPEV.US), UBTECH, GAC Group, Tencent, Midea Group, BYD, Xiaomi.

More noteworthy is the release of Morgan Stanley's "Humanoid Tech 25" list. In its report, the firm advises investors to shift their focus to the internal components of robots, targeting suppliers of the "brain" (AI), "eyes" (sensors), and "body" (actuators) rather than focusing on robot brands themselves. This change sends an important signal: the industry's focus is transitioning from showcasing complete machines to emphasizing foundational capabilities.

Key companies identified by Morgan Stanley as pillars of the humanoid robotics era:

"Brain": Baidu, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A(BIDU.US), iFlytek, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Sponsored ADR(BABA.US), Samsung, NVIDIA Corporation(NVDA.US), Cadence Design Systems, Inc.(CDNS.US), Texas Instruments Incorporated(TXN.US), Synopsys, Inc.(SNPS.US), ARM Holdings PLC Sponsored ADR(ARM.US), Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.(AMD.US), Desay SV Automotive, Horizon Robotics.

"Eyes": Microchip Technology Incorporated(MCHP.US), Sony Group Corporation American Depositary Shares(SONY.US), Samsung, Ambarella, Inc.(AMBA.US), ON Semiconductor Corporation(ON.US).

"Body": Hesai Group(HSAI.US), NXP Semiconductors NV(NXPI.US), STMicroelectronics NV Sponsored ADR RegS(STM.US), Texas Instruments Incorporated(TXN.US), Allegro MicroSystems, Inc.(ALGM.US), INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES AG(IFNNY.US), RENESAS ELECTRONICS CORP(RNECY.US), ROHM CO LTD(ROHCY.US), Joyson Electronics, Melexis.

What’s Next to Look Forward to?

By 2026, the robotics industry is expected to experience rapid growth. According to Nomura Securities, the humanoid and quadruped robot markets are still in their early stages, with Tesla and Figure AI leading the humanoid robot segment, while Boston Dynamics dominates the quadruped robot field.

Tesla’s Optimus is projected to accelerate mass production after March 2026, with annual deliveries reaching 60,000 to 80,000 units. Weekly production capacity could rise to 1,000 to 2,000 units in the second half of the year.

However, Nomura believes that market growth in 2026 will still face challenges, with uncertainties surrounding production pace and supply chain allocation. Tesla’s robotics business is expected to have limited short-term contributions to earnings, with profitability anticipated in 2027-2028.

Nomura prefers companies with strong growth in core non-robotics businesses, viewing robotics as a long-term potential. For the Chinese market, Nomura is optimistic about companies with technological moats and leadership in key subsystem areas, predicting they will achieve excess returns during the 2026 shipment peak.

Overall, Nomura holds a selectively optimistic view of companies with solid core businesses and competitive advantages in niche markets.