• On Holding AG recently reported fourth-quarter 2025 sales of CHF 743.8 million and net income of CHF 69.1 million, with full-year 2025 sales reaching CHF 3.01 billion and net income of CHF 203.7 million.
• Despite crossing the CHF 3 billion revenue mark and delivering record gross margins, the company’s 2026 outlook of at least 23% constant-currency sales growth and higher reinvestment spending has shifted investor attention toward the balance between growth and profitability.
• We’ll now examine how On Holding’s record 2025 revenue but more measured 2026 growth guidance may reshape its existing investment narrative.

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On Holding Investment Narrative Recap

To own On Holding today, you need to believe its premium brand, innovation pipeline and global expansion can justify high reinvestment and a rich valuation, even as net income lags revenue growth. The latest results reinforce that tradeoff: record 2025 sales of CHF 3.01 billion and strong gross margins came alongside softer 2026 guidance and increased spending, which keeps the key near term catalyst mix shift to higher margin DTC and innovation intact, but keeps margin compression as the central risk.

The most relevant update here is On’s 2026 outlook for at least 23% constant currency net sales growth and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.5% to 19%. This guidance helps frame how far management is willing to lean into investments in areas like APAC expansion and technologies such as LightSpray while still protecting profitability, giving investors a clearer reference point as they weigh growth catalysts against execution and cost risks.

Yet beneath the premium brand story, investors should be aware of how rising reinvestment and slower growth guidance could interact with...

On Holding's narrative projects CHF5.0 billion revenue and CHF561.2 million earnings by 2028. This requires 22.9% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of roughly CHF425 million from CHF135.9 million today.

Uncover how On Holding's forecasts yield a $61.90 fair value, a 49% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The most bullish analysts were assuming revenue could reach about CHF 5.5 billion and earnings CHF 725 million by 2028, which is far more optimistic than the baseline narrative and puts much heavier weight on rapid APAC scaling and margin expansion, so it is worth asking how this earnings miss and softer 2026 guide might shift those expectations.

Explore 19 other fair value estimates on On Holding - why the stock might be worth just $41.90!

The Verdict Is Yours

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your On Holding research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free On Holding research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate On Holding's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.