OpenAI and SpaceX are increasingly at the center of the venture secondary market, as investors crowd into a small group of private companies seen as the biggest liquidity events on the horizon.

During a recent PitchBook webinar on venture secondaries, speakers said the market has become heavily concentrated around a handful of names.

The moderator, Emily Zheng, PitchBook’s Senior Venture Capital Analyst, noted that "the top 20 startups account for 81% of all secondary trading value in Q1," while "the top five alone represent 45%." 

The coming wave of liquidity events, including possible listings from names like SpaceX and OpenAI, could reshape the market's trajectory, she added.

That concentration has helped drive growth, but it has also raised the stakes. "This concentration is both the source of the market's growth and it's also its greatest vulnerability," said Zheng.

Is Retail Money Driving A New Risk?

The panel pointed to OpenAI's latest financing round and SpaceX's retail allocation efforts as examples of how access to elite private companies is broadening beyond traditional institutional buyers.

At the same time, panelists said those same companies could become a major test for the secondary market if they eventually go public. The moderator said, "The near-term, secondary market will contract in headline volume when the mega IPO candidates go public," as capital shifts to public markets and gets locked up after listing.

Whether that shift becomes a short-term disruption or a deeper reset may depend on how names like OpenAI and SpaceX trade after any eventual debut. 

In the bullish case, strong post-IPO performance could validate today's aggressive private-market pricing. In the bearish case, weak trading could drag on sentiment across venture-backed companies. One panelist warned that overheated pricing can begin "to kinda unravel a bit in really difficult ways, when the party stops."

The broader backdrop is structural. One speaker said the typical path from "conception to IPO in the year 2000 was probably five to eight years. Now it's above 16 years," extending well beyond the life of a traditional VC fund.

That delay is one reason the secondary market has become more popular. Another panelist said "the secondary market now is accepted as an asset class," with "institutional money behind it" and growing infrastructure built around private liquidity.

The Structural Shift Reshaping Liquidity Events

Still, speakers said the rush into names like OpenAI and SpaceX is part of a broader overheating dynamic. One investor said "it's getting a bit crowded in the room now," citing "a lot of retail money and SPV money chasing." He added that in top private names, "the pricing is parity with primary," which reduces the discount secondary investors traditionally look for.

That has pushed companies to take more control over how private shares change hands. Rather than allowing informal transactions and shadow markets to define price discovery, more companies are embracing structured tender offers and company-led liquidity programs. One adviser said secondaries are now viewed as "a legit form of exits."

Retail participation remains one of the biggest fault lines. 

The panel pointed to OpenAI's financing and SpaceX's approach to allocation as evidence that private access is widening, but some speakers argued that trend carries risk. 

One panelist said, "I'm always suspicious when investors, in the market, or companies are resorting to retail money," calling that capital "unpredictable" and "erratic."

"I don’t think it’s a pool of capital that you should overly rely on. It creates friction. Their need for liquidity is more unpredictable, I would say," one panelist added.

For now, OpenAI and SpaceX represent both the opportunity and the fragility of the current secondary boom. They are drawing capital, widening access and shaping investor expectations, but they may also determine how durable this phase of the private market really is.

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