Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is drawing fresh attention as its March 4 fourth quarter 2025 earnings report approaches, with investors focused on revenue, Remaining Performance Obligations, and guidance after the postponed Cepheus-1-108Q launch.

At a share price of $17.69, Rigetti has seen short term pressure, with a 90 day share price return of 25.92% decline and a year to date share price return of 25.04% decline. This comes even though the 1 year total shareholder return of 129.74% and very large 3 year total shareholder return suggest earlier enthusiasm that is now cooling as investors reassess execution risks around hardware delays and funding needs.

If the volatility around Rigetti has you looking for other ways to get exposure to the theme, you might want to scan our list of 22 quantum computing stocks as a starting point for further ideas.

So with Rigetti trading at a sharp discount to some valuation estimates, yet carrying real execution and funding risks, is the recent pullback giving you an entry point, or is the market already factoring in all the future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 27.8% Undervalued

Rigetti's last close at $17.69 sits well below the $24.50 fair value set out in the most followed narrative, putting the focus on what assumptions are driving that gap.

The trajectory of quantum computing, particularly in the context of Rigetti Computing and the Quantum Benchmark Testing System (QBTS), could witness significant shifts. Trump's emphasis on "America First" policies might lead to increased funding for public-private partnerships and The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)'s R&D works in critical technologies, including quantum computing, as part of national security and technological supremacy initiatives. Although the company may not achieve profitability in the short or medium term, 2025 will be a much positive year in terms of strengthening commercial relationships and improving cash flow.

Want to see what sits behind that higher fair value, even while profits stay in the red? According to LongTermer, the story leans heavily on rapid revenue expansion, rising margins and a rich future earnings multiple. Curious how those ingredients combine to justify $24.50 per share? The full narrative lays out the numbers in detail.

Result: Fair Value of $24.50 (UNDERVALUED)

However, the fair value story can unravel quickly if hardware delays persist, or if Rigetti needs to raise fresh capital on terms that heavily dilute existing shareholders.

Another Angle: Rich Book Value, Big Discount To Fair Value

There is a sharp contrast between the SWS DCF model and simpler yardsticks. On one hand, our DCF work points to a fair value of $47.33 per share, which would make Rigetti look deeply undervalued versus the current $17.69 price.

On the other hand, the current P/B ratio of 15.7x is far higher than both the US Semiconductor industry average of 4.4x and the peer average of 4.6x. That gap suggests the market is already paying a heavy premium for the company on book value. This raises the question of how much weight to give to the cash flow analysis compared with the multiples at which similar businesses trade.

Next Steps

With the mix of optimism and concern running through this story, it makes sense to review the numbers yourself and move quickly to form your own judgement, starting with the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.