The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

By Jonathan Guilford

NEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters Breakingviews) - As far as Wall Street is concerned, Elon Musk’s aura is worth even more than his fortune. The same investment banks that helped the billionaire sell shares in his SpaceX SPCX.O venture last month began publishing equity research on the rocket-maker on Tuesday. A $2 trillion market value already speaks to the hype, but breathless analysts manage to go even further. The quirk is that the higher the price target, the lower the financial expectations.

SpaceX makes mind-boggling projections seem mundane, evidenced by their broad acceptance among stock-pickers. Those at Goldman Sachs GS.N, which helped lead the IPO, assume enormous revenue growth, year after year, that reaches $474 billion by 2030, up from $19 billion in 2025. Fellow top underwriter Morgan Stanley MS.N, whose analysts gush over an "X of 1 position in space architecture," expects a mere 17-fold rise to $319 billion, with monumental spending needed before Musk can fulfill his ambitions. For the also-ran artificial intelligence business, which is becoming more of a server landlord than a research hotbed, top-line estimates range from around $160 billion to $460 billion.

Musk has fanned the flames of exuberance, putting SpaceX's total addressable market at a laughable $29 trillion. The joke is lost on Wall Street, where financiers are musing about whether the company's satellites can displace terrestrial wireless service or carry data centers into orbit.

The mixed price and performance signals are most telling. Even as SpaceX shares slide back towards their $135 market debut price, opening at $150 on Tuesday after gaining entry to the Nasdaq-100 index .NDX, Goldman sets one of the lowest targets, at $205, while Morgan Stanley stretches to the higher end, at $300.

Smaller IPO adviser Raymond James is the odd firm out, expecting $800 a share. Its 2030 forecast, however, anticipates about $460 billion of revenue and $340 billion in adjusted EBITDA, both less than Goldman. Deutsche Bank analysts, meanwhile, consider SpaceX no less than the "apex of civilizational ambition," but forecast a smaller top line still. MoffettNathanson, an independent shop that did not advise SpaceX, pairs lower estimates with a more sobering $131 price target, less than what new investors paid.

Electric-car maker Tesla TSLA.O, Musk’s other publicly traded colossus, is instructive. Like SpaceX, it once claimed a practical monopoly. As international competition grew, however, its results slumped. No matter: the valuation kept rising, with investors captivated by the promise of self-driving vehicles and robot butlers. The dangerous lesson learned? Forget about today, it's all about the many bright tomorrows.

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CONTEXT NEWS

Dozens of equity analysts published their first reports on Elon Musk's SpaceX on July 7, the same day as the stock entered the Nasdaq-100 index.

The company, which builds rockets and artificial intelligence models, completed its initial public offering on June 12, selling shares for $135 apiece. They closed on July 6 at $160.40, and were down 5.5% at 1130EDT on July 7.