Kioxia Corporation and Sandisk (SNDK) have begun production of their 10th generation 3D flash memory at the Fab2 K2 plant in Japan, marking a fresh operational milestone for the storage specialist.

Sandisk’s share price has swung sharply over the past year, with a 1-day share price return of 3.10% and 7-day return of 9.79% following recent AI storage wins and fresh 3D NAND product news. Over longer periods, the 30-day share price return is down 3.24%, the 90-day share price return is 101.15%, and the year-to-date share price return is 596.09%. The 1-year total shareholder return is also very large and signals strong but volatile momentum.

If Sandisk’s move has your attention, this is a good moment to see what else is moving in AI memory and storage by checking out 52 AI infrastructure stocks

After such a sharp move in Sandisk, the key tension is plain: is most of the easy upside now in the rear-view mirror, or do the joint venture ramp-up and AI storage wins still leave meaningful headroom on today’s valuation?

Most Popular Narrative: 8.1% Overvalued

Compared with Sandisk’s last close at $1,915.92, the most followed narrative fair value of $1,772.91 suggests the stock is pricing in extra optimism today, with that view built on very specific AI and memory supply assumptions.

Rapid AI and cloud workload expansion is driving data center NAND exabyte growth at a pace well above overall supply. This positions Sandisk's enterprise SSD portfolio and deepening hyperscaler engagements to support sustained revenue acceleration and structurally higher pricing power, benefiting earnings.

Curious what earnings profile and margin shape are assumed to justify that price tag, and how far revenue is projected to stretch from here? The narrative leans on aggressive growth, richer profitability and a future earnings multiple that looks more like established tech leaders than a newly profitable storage company.

Result: Fair Value of $1,772.91 (OVERVALUED)

However, there are clear pressure points that could challenge the bullish Sandisk narrative, including a potential swing from tight NAND supply to oversupply and slower than expected AI driven memory demand.

Next Steps

With Sandisk attracting both enthusiasm and concern, it makes sense to act promptly and test the assumptions yourself. A useful starting point is to weigh the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.