A week ago, Saudi Arabian Oil Company (TADAWUL:2222) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Saudi Arabian Oil beat earnings, with revenues hitting ر.س467b, ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share outperforming analyst reckonings by a solid 16%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Saudi Arabian Oil after the latest results.

After the latest results, the twelve analysts covering Saudi Arabian Oil are now predicting revenues of ر.س1.98t in 2026. If met, this would reflect a solid 16% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 33% to ر.س2.05. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of ر.س1.88t and earnings per share (EPS) of ر.س1.92 in 2026. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of ر.س30.00, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Saudi Arabian Oil at ر.س35.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ر.س26.50. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Saudi Arabian Oil is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Saudi Arabian Oil's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 22% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.9% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 0.5% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Saudi Arabian Oil to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Saudi Arabian Oil following these results. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Saudi Arabian Oil going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.