Investors in Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef (TADAWUL:2223) had a good week, as its shares rose 7.5% to close at ر.س128 following the release of its quarterly results. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at ر.س2.2b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at ر.س5.08 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef's four analysts is for revenues of ر.س11.7b in 2026. This would reflect a huge 44% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to step up 17% to ر.س6.20. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ر.س8.75b and earnings per share (EPS) of ر.س6.91 in 2026. Although revenues are expected to increase meaningfully, the analysts have acknowledged the cost of growth, given the real cut to EPS estimates following the latest report.

The analysts also upgraded Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef's price target 5.4% to ر.س131, implying that the higher revenue expected to generate enough value to offset the forecast decline in earnings. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef analyst has a price target of ر.س145 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ر.س121. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. For example, we noticed that Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 62% growth to the end of 2026 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 2.7% a year over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.1% per year. So it looks like Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company - Luberef going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.