Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Company (TADAWUL:1111) missed earnings with its latest second-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at ر.س323m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 25%, coming in at just ر.س0.77 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Saudi Tadawul Group Holding after the latest results.

After the latest results, the six analysts covering Saudi Tadawul Group Holding are now predicting revenues of ر.س1.26b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a credible 2.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 28% to ر.س3.48. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ر.س1.36b and earnings per share (EPS) of ر.س3.79 in 2026. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the ر.س155 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Saudi Tadawul Group Holding analyst has a price target of ر.س178 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ر.س138. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Saudi Tadawul Group Holding's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 5.5% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 3.0% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Saudi Tadawul Group Holding is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at ر.س155, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Saudi Tadawul Group Holding going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Saudi Tadawul Group Holding's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.