It's been a sad week for Shopify Inc. (NASDAQ:SHOP), who've watched their investment drop 13% to US$105 in the week since the company reported its quarterly result. Revenues of US$3.2b beat expectations by 2.7%. Unfortunately statutory earnings per share (EPS) fell well short of the mark, turning in a loss of US$0.45 compared to previous analyst expectations of a profit. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Shopify's 45 analysts is for revenues of US$14.8b in 2026. This reflects a solid 20% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to reduce 8.3% to US$0.94 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$14.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.50 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.

The consensus price target held steady at US$153, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Shopify, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$200 and the most bearish at US$105 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 27% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 23% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 13% per year. So it's pretty clear that Shopify is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Shopify. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$153, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Shopify. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Shopify analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.