Tesla is scheduled to release its Q3 2024 earnings report after the market closes on October 23 (tomorrow), Eastern Time. 

According to Bloomberg analysts' forecasts, Tesla Motors, Inc.(TSLA.US)'s Q3 revenue is expected to reach $25.42 billion, a 9% year-on-year increase, while earnings per share (EPS) are projected to decline by 4% to $0.51.

According to market data, Tesla's performance over the last eight quarters shows the following:

• Tesla beat EPS expectations in only 4 of the last 8 quarters, and it missed expectations for the last four consecutive quarters.
• The probability of Tesla’s stock rising on earnings day is only 25%, with an average fluctuation of ±10.37%, a maximum increase of +12.06%, and a maximum drop of -12.33%.

Robotaxi Event Disappoints, Tesla Stock Hits One-Month Low

At "We, Robot" event, Tesla introduced its Robotaxi products—Cybercab, Robovan, and the humanoid robot Optimus. However, the lack of concrete content and plans led to a nearly 9% drop in Tesla’s stock, reaching its lowest point in a month.

Wall Street analysts criticized the event for "lacking immediate deliverables or revenue drivers," prompting a shift back to Tesla's fundamentals, which are viewed as "poor." Tesla's automotive business is valued at around $200 billion, with its $600 billion valuation largely reliant on unproven ventures like Full Self-Driving and robotaxis.

The Q3 earnings report on October 23 will be the next key test for investors.

Key Focus for Tesla's Q3: Gross Profit Remains Critical

• Automotive Business: Q3 Deliveries Beat Expectations, but Margins Likely to Decline

Tesla's Q3 global deliveries reached 463,000 vehicles, up 6.4% year-on-year and 4.3% quarter-on-quarter. Despite this increase, investors were unimpressed, leading to a nearly 4% drop in Tesla’s stock. Intense competition and weaker consumer demand have continued to pressure Tesla, with heavy promotions dragging down vehicle prices. The market will closely monitor profit margins, which have been on a 12-quarter downward trend. In Q2, Tesla's gross margin fell to 18%, and another slight decline is expected in Q3.

• Energy Business: Q3 Revenue May Weaken

Tesla's energy storage deployment fell 27% quarter-on-quarter to 6.9 GWh, below Q2's 9 GWh, though still up 73% year-on-year. Fluctuations are linked to large project milestones.

Wall Street Firms Cautiously Bullish; Barclays Predicts Tesla Will Outperform After Earnings

• Barclays: Q3 Auto Margins Will Exceed Expectations, Tesla to Outperform Post-Earnings

Barclays analysts predict Tesla's Q3 EPS will hit $0.68, above Bloomberg's consensus, potentially leading to a stock rebound after the Robotaxi event sell-off. They expect automotive gross margins to surpass expectations, reaching 15.2%, and believe margins have "bottomed out" with potential improvement due to regulatory credits. Tesla's energy business shows steady growth, and recent layoffs have helped cut costs.

Tesla Set a New Record with $1.79 Billion in Regulatory Credit Sales in 2023

• HSBC: Q3 Deliveries Beat Expectations, Energy Storage Likely to Underperform. 

HSBC analysts noted that Tesla delivered 463,000 vehicles in Q3 2024 (up 6% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter), in line with company consensus but 10% higher than the bank’s estimate. In contrast, energy storage deployments significantly underperformed, with 6.9 GWh deployed, 23% below consensus (25% below HSBC’s forecast). Management had previously indicated that storage deployments tend to be uneven.

To meet the 2024 delivery target, Q4 deliveries only need to grow by 1% year-on-year. Given that Q3 production was 470,000 vehicles, only 1.5% higher than deliveries, management likely expects moderate growth in Q4.

Related Investment Targets

With Tesla’s earnings report approaching, which other Tesla supply chain-related stocks are worth watching?

Below are Tesla-related ETFs that investors can watch: