Tesla is pouring billions into AI, autonomous driving and humanoid robots—but investors remain divided over which business will become the company's next major profit engine.

The market's biggest debate: Is Optimus ready to become a real business?

Tesla Motors, Inc.(TSLA.US) CEO Elon Musk has repeatedly described the Optimus humanoid robot as the company's "most important product ever." But despite that long-term vision, investors are still debating how quickly the project can become commercially viable.

The optimistic case is built around the size of the opportunity. Morgan Stanley estimates the global humanoid robotics market could eventually reach about $5 trillion by 2050, while Goldman Sachs expects the industry to grow to roughly $38 billion by 2035 as AI adoption expands.

The more cautious view focuses on execution.

Ross Gerber, CEO of investment firm Gerber Kawasaki, believes the biggest obstacle is not demand—it is building a robot that can reliably perform human movements at scale.

"Over millions of years of evolution, God created humans very well. Hands are hard, feet are hard, and eyes are hard [to replicate]," Gerber said.

He noted that robots built on wheels or tracks have historically been much easier to commercialize than machines designed to walk and work like people.

Gerber also questioned whether consumer humanoid robots can generate enough near-term returns to justify today's investment levels.

"Spending a trillion dollars to develop a robot that folds clothes makes absolutely no sense to me."

In his view, humanoid robots are more likely to find earlier commercial success in industrial, aerospace and military applications than in consumer use.

Tesla says production is approaching—but the hardest part is still ahead

Tesla Motors, Inc.(TSLA.US)'s own management acknowledged during the Q2 2026 earnings call that bringing Optimus to mass production will not be straightforward.

Musk said the industry still lacks an established supply chain for many critical components, especially robotic hands capable of replicating human dexterity. While he said production should begin "very soon," initial manufacturing volumes are expected to be limited as the company gradually builds capacity.

That cautious message broadly aligns with how Wall Street sees the rollout: commercial production is moving closer, but scaling the technology is likely to take time.

Q2 earnings showed where Tesla is spending today

Tesla Motors, Inc.(TSLA.US)'s latest earnings also highlighted why investors remain focused on execution rather than just long-term potential.

Following the company's Q2 2026 results, Jpmorgan Chase(JPM.US) kept its Neutral rating while lowering its price target from $475 to $450.

According to the bank, both EBIT and earnings per share fell well short of expectations, largely because automotive gross margins were weaker than anticipated. It attributed the pressure to lower regulatory credit revenue, higher financing incentive costs, increased warranty expenses for energy storage systems and rising commodity costs.

At the same time, JPMorgan pointed to several areas that continued to improve.

The bank noted that Tesla's automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credits, was broadly unchanged from the previous quarter, suggesting recent delivery growth was not driven solely by incentives.

It also highlighted continued progress in Robotaxi operations. Management said the company is prioritizing autonomous driving mileage rather than simply expanding the number of vehicles. According to Tesla Motors, Inc.(TSLA.US), unsupervised Robotaxi mileage has been increasing by around 10% per week since January 2026, while maintaining a strong safety record so far.

JPMorgan also sees Tesla's services business—including Full Self-Driving subscriptions—as an increasingly important earnings contributor as software adoption grows and infrastructure becomes more efficient.

Why capital spending remains so high

Tesla Motors, Inc.(TSLA.US) reaffirmed plans to spend more than $25 billion in capital expenditures during 2026, reflecting continued investment across AI infrastructure, autonomous driving and Optimus.

For JPMorgan, this explains why the stock may remain range-bound in the near term: the company is still investing heavily while many of its largest growth initiatives have yet to make a meaningful contribution to earnings.

What investors are watching next

Based on Tesla Motors, Inc.(TSLA.US)'s management commentary and recent institutional research, the market is currently focused on three questions:

• Can Robotaxi continue expanding safely while increasing autonomous driving mileage?
• Can Optimus move from prototype production to large-scale manufacturing despite supply chain challenges?
• Can higher-margin software and services generate enough profit to offset today's elevated investment spending?

Those questions, rather than the size of the long-term market alone, are likely to shape how investors evaluate Tesla's next phase of growth.