The Value Anchor | Analyst Targets Just Landed on 5 Saudi Stocks — One Points to 41% Upside
ALMARAI 2280.SA | 0.00 | |
YC 3020.SA | 0.00 | |
ETIHAD ETISALAT 7020.SA | 0.00 | |
STC 7010.SA | 0.00 | |
ZAIN KSA 7030.SA | 0.00 |
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Three very different corners of the Saudi market — the dairy aisle, the cement plant, and the mobile network — all landed on analysts' desks this quarter. After Q1 2026 results, research houses refreshed their target prices and ratings on Almarai, Yamama Cement, and the three big telecom operators. Here's what they flagged, when they said it, and the single question each name leaves investors with.
A note before the numbers: every rating and target price below reflects the analyst's view as of the date shown. These are the firms' own assessments, not a recommendation from us — and views change as fast as prices do.
Almarai: profit held up, but the margin story is the one to watch
Almarai Co.(2280.SA) posted a Q1 2026 net profit of SAR 732.2 million. Of the three houses that weighed in, two landed on Buy and one stayed Neutral, putting the average target price at SAR 53.23 — well above the SAR 45 the stock currently trades at.
At a glance — latest price SAR 45.00 on June 1 · average target SAR 53.23
| Research house | Rating | Target (SAR) | Upside to target* | View dated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAB Securities | Buy | 60.00 | +33.3% | Apr 10 |
| United Securities | Buy | 51.69 | +14.9% | Apr 15 |
| Riyad Capital | Neutral | 48.00 | +6.7% | Apr 16 |
Upside calculated from the latest price shown, not the analyst's figure at the time of the call.
The spread tells you where the disagreement is:
- FAB Securities (Buy, April 10) is the most bullish at SAR 60. It saw profit beat expectations, with Egypt and Qatar holding steady, and expects profitability to improve in Q2 — while warning that shipping, energy, and supply-chain costs are a live risk.
- United Securities (Buy, April 15) sits in the middle at SAR 51.69. Revenue beat its (deliberately conservative) forecast by 8.5%, helped by stronger inventory sales and the bottled-water segment. But gross margin slipped 38 basis points on costlier raw materials and shipping — and it expects that pressure to build in Q2 as higher costs fully feed through.
- Riyad Capital (Neutral, April 16) is the cautious voice at SAR 48. It noted revenue rose roughly 7% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter to SAR 6.2 billion, as Ramadan dairy and poultry demand offset softer bakery sales. Net profit jumped 58% versus the prior quarter on higher volumes, but was broadly flat year-on-year — squeezed by weaker poultry contributions amid supply constraints and rising operating and financing costs.
The question for investors: the top line is growing, but can Almarai protect its margins as costs climb? That tension is exactly why one firm still won't move past Neutral.
Yamama Cement: a rare clean sweep of bullish calls
Yamama Cement Co.(3020.SA)'s profit rose to SAR 143.9 million — and unusually, all four research houses surveyed came out positive, with an average target price of SAR 30.13 against a current price of SAR 24.75. Even SNB Capital, the most reserved of the group, upgraded its stance from Neutral to Overweight with a SAR 27.50 target on April 22.
At a glance — latest price SAR 24.75 on June 1 · average target SAR 30.13
| Research house | Rating | Target (SAR) | Upside to target* | View dated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BSF Capital | Buy | 35.00 | +41.4% | May 14 |
| Riyad Capital | Buy | 30.00 | +21.2% | Apr 28 |
| Ubhar Capital | Buy | 28.00 | +13.1% | Apr 29 |
| SNB Capital | Overweight | 27.50 | +11.1% | Apr 22 |
Upside calculated from the latest price shown, not the analyst's figure at the time of the call.
What the analysts saw:
- BSF Capital (Buy, May 14) set the high mark at SAR 35. It credited pricing discipline — Yamama held back on bulk sales — alongside easing financing costs and a sharp rise in investment income. April sales hinted at a partial return to bulk selling (718,000 tons, still below 2025's last three quarters). BSF expects a lift from planned projects and construction-sector reforms, and pointed to plans to turn the old plant site into a logistics and industrial hub near King Salman Industrial City. Its caution: new capacity could squeeze prices if demand cools, and regional tensions delaying major projects would hurt demand.
- Riyad Capital (Buy, April 28) at SAR 30 said profit beat its forecast, helped by stronger revenue, gains from selling old-plant equipment, and investment income. Selling prices were firmer than expected; volumes rose year-on-year on better demand but dipped quarter-on-quarter on seasonality. Crucially, cost per ton fell on both measures, pushing gross margin past estimates.
- Ubhar Capital (Buy, April 29) at SAR 28 was more measured. Revenue came in line, with lower cement prices offsetting higher volumes, and profit leaned on non-recurring income. It framed the sector as entering an expansion phase — meaning new production capacity is starting to pressure pricing — but expects a planned 12,500-tons-per-day capacity addition in 2026 and Vision 2030 demand to support volumes.
The question for investors: the demand story (Vision 2030, construction reform) is real — but so is the wave of new capacity. Whether prices hold depends on which one wins.
Telecom: BSF Capital starts the clock on stc, Mobily, and Zain KSA
On June 1, BSF Capital initiated coverage on all three listed Saudi operators — and the framing matters as much as the ratings. Sector net profit grew 6% year-on-year at a 17.3% margin, but earnings lagged the improvement in gross and operating profit, meaning non-operating items kept dragging on the bottom line.
The bigger shift: subscribers rose 4.9% year-on-year to 59.9 million, but BSF argued the growth story is moving away from simply adding users toward revenue depth, earnings quality, enterprise exposure, and how well each operator monetizes its network.
At a glance — BSF Capital initiation, June 1 · prices latest on June 1
| Operator | Rating | Latest (SAR) | Target (SAR) | Upside to target* | Subscriber growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Etihad Etisalat Co.(7020.SA) | Buy | 62.65 | 76.00 | +21.3% | +16% |
| Saudi Telecom Co.(7010.SA) | Buy | 43.42 | 49.00 | +12.9% | +4% |
| Mobile Telecommunication Company Saudi Arabia(7030.SA) | Hold | 10.99 | 12.00 | +9.2% | −8% |
Upside calculated from the latest price shown. 2026 profit forecasts and the note on Zain's one-off profit are in the detail below.
The split between the three is stark:
- Mobily — Buy, target SAR 76. Strongest subscriber growth at 16% and a 15% rise in net profit. BSF sees 2026 profit of SAR 3.75 billion.
- stc — Buy, target SAR 49. Subscribers up 4%, net profit up a modest 1%, but the scale anchor of the group with a forecast SAR 15.49 billion in 2026 profit.
- Zain KSA — Hold, target SAR 12. Net profit surged 116% — but read the fine print: that jump was driven mainly by one-off Universal Service Fund revenue and lower financing costs. Its subscriber base actually shrank 8%. Forecast 2026 profit: SAR 702 million.
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This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.