Earnings season is approaching for Saudi-listed banks, and the analyst community has laid out its expectations for Q1 2026. The consensus points to continued profit growth on an annual basis — but the quarterly picture is more nuanced, with several names expected to see sequential pullbacks. Meanwhile, share prices have been telling their own story over the past seven weeks, and the divergence between analyst forecasts and market sentiment makes for a compelling read.

Here's what investors should know heading into the reporting period.

The Big Picture: Steady Annual Growth, Softer Sequential Momentum

Research firms covering the Saudi banking sector project combined net profit of approximately SAR 23.1 billion for Q1 2026 across the listed banks under coverage. That would represent a 3.9% increase year-on-year (YoY) compared with SAR 22.3 billion in Q1 2025 — a sign that the sector's earnings trajectory remains intact.

However, on a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) basis, the same consensus estimates imply a 2.2% decline from SAR 23.7 billion in Q4 2025. Seasonal softness in the first quarter is not unusual for the sector, but some individual bank forecasts stand out for the magnitude of the expected swing.

YoY Standouts: Alinma and Al Rajhi Lead the Pack

Among individual names, Alinma Bank(1150.SA) and Al Rajhi Bank(1120.SA) are forecast to deliver the strongest annual profit growth in Q1 2026.

Alinma tops the list with an estimated 11.1% YoY increase in net income, projected to reach SAR 1,674.7 million — up from SAR 1,508.0 million a year earlier.

Al Rajhi is not far behind, with analysts expecting a 10.3% YoY jump to SAR 6,514.7 million, making it the largest profit contributor in absolute terms. Al Rajhi's dominant retail franchise and fee-income diversification continue to underpin consensus confidence.

Bank Albilad(1140.SA) rounds out the top three with a projected 9.5% YoY rise to SAR 766.7 million.

On the other end, Arab National Bank(1080.SA) (ANB) faces the weakest annual outlook, with analysts modeling an 8.4% YoY decline in net income to SAR 1,193.7 million. Saudi Awwal Bank(1060.SA) (SAB) is also expected to see a modest contraction of 3.2% YoY, with projected profit at SAR 2,067.5 million.

QoQ Dynamics: SAIB's Steep Drop and BSF's Rebound

The sequential picture reveals sharper contrasts. The Saudi Investment Bank(1030.SA) (SAIB) stands out for a projected 42.8% QoQ decline in net income — from SAR 897.3 million in Q4 2025 to SAR 513.0 million in Q1 2026. A drop of this magnitude typically signals elevated Q4 one-offs (such as provision reversals or investment gains) rather than a fundamental deterioration, but it is worth monitoring closely when the actual results are released.

Bank Albilad(1140.SA) is also expected to see a notable 6.1% QoQ pullback, while The Saudi National Bank(1180.SA) (SNB), the sector's largest lender, could post a 4.2% sequential decline to SAR 6,115.0 million.

The brightest QoQ story belongs to Banque Saudi Fransi(1050.SA) (BSF), where analysts forecast an 8.1% sequential increase in profit to SAR 1,361.0 million — the strongest QoQ momentum in the coverage universe. Bank Aljazira(1020.SA) (BJAZ) follows with a 6.2% QoQ rise, albeit from a smaller base.

Analyst Estimates at a Glance

Year-on-Year Comparison (Q1 2025 vs. Q1 2026e)

Quarter-on-Quarter Comparison (Q4 2025 vs. Q1 2026e)

What the Stock Market Says: Share Price Performance (Mar 1 – Apr 15, 2026)

While analysts have been refining their earnings models, the market has been casting its own votes. Over the roughly six-and-a-half-week window (the March bottom rebound) from March 1 to April 15, 2026, Saudi bank stocks have moved in ways that both align with and diverge from the consensus earnings outlook.

All Saudi bank stocks posted gains over the period, with an average increase of roughly 10.9%.

A few dynamics stand out:

SAB's price-earnings disconnect. SAB led all bank stocks with a 14.5% share price rally — despite being one of only two banks expected to report a YoY earnings decline (-3.2%). This suggests the market may be looking past near-term earnings softness and pricing in longer-term catalysts, which is worth monitoring closely at the earnings release.

ANB's similar divergence. ANB gained 13.0% on the Tadawul even as analysts project the steepest YoY profit drop in the sector (-8.4%). The gap between market optimism and analyst caution is notable and could set up a meaningful reaction when actual results are reported.

Alinma and Al Rajhi: fundamentals and price in sync. Both names — the two strongest YoY earnings growers in the consensus — also posted top-four share price gains (+13.7% and +12.0%, respectively). For these two, the market appears to be pricing in the earnings strength that analysts expect.

Looking Ahead

Saudi banks are set to begin reporting Q1 2026 results in the coming weeks. With sector-wide earnings growth of nearly 4% YoY expected, the fundamental backdrop remains supportive — but the divergences between analyst estimates and recent stock performance suggest that the market is already forming views on which names can outperform and which may disappoint.

For investors, the key variables to watch include: net interest margin trends as the interest rate environment evolves, provisioning levels (especially for banks with elevated QoQ volatility like SAIB), and any commentary from management on loan growth pipelines tied to Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 mega-projects.

Note: All analyst estimates are consensus figures compiled from the research firms indicated. Net income figures are in SAR millions. Stock prices are closing prices on the Tadawul. Past share price performance is not indicative of future results.