• Goldman Sachs: Raises recession risk to 45%.
• Fed Cut Expectations: Traders anticipate five rate cuts by 2025.
• Buffett Gains: Net worth increased by US$12.7B YTD.

I. Market Report

US stock futures were hit once again on Monday as the White House remained defiant after President Donald Trump’s rollout of shockingly high tariff rates on most key US trading partners has sparked a three-day market meltdown.

As of 08:30 AM, ET(or 03:30 pm in Riyadh), S&P 500 futures shed 1.98% with the benchmark nearing bear market territory when official trading begins. It closed Friday down 17.4% from its closing record touched in February. Dow Jones Industrial average futures fell 692 points, or 1.8%. Nasdaq-100 futures lost 2.12% as investors continued to shed their one-time tech winners to raise cash.

As of 07:50 AM, ET (or 02:50 pm in Riyadh), top pre-market movements are as follows:

II. Flash Headlines

Goldman Sachs Raises Recession Risk to 45%

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.(GS.US)  raises recession probability forecast to 45% due to financial tightening & policy uncertainty. Jefferies Financial Group Inc.(JEF.US)  analysts see tariffs as a chance for tech giants like Amazon.com, Inc.(AMZN.US) , Meta Platforms(META.US) , Microsoft Corporation(MSFT.US)  to reset financial guidance despite price target cuts.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rise

Traders anticipate five Fed rate cuts by 2025, with a 40% chance of an emergency cut next week amid tariffs-induced recession fears and market turmoil. 

US Stocks Plummet, Trump Defends Tariffs

US stocks lost US$5.4 trillion as major indexes fell sharply. President Trump said tariffs are "a medicine that must be taken" and showed no sign of backing down. Stock index futures continued to decline sharply in the new week of trading. 

Buffett Stands Tall Amid Billionaire Losses

Warren Buffett's net worth increased by US$12.7B YTD. Elon Musk (Tesla Motors, Inc.(TSLA.US) ), Jeff Bezos (Amazon.com, Inc.(AMZN.US) ), Mark Zuckerberg (Meta Platforms(META.US) ) lost US$130B, US$45.2B, US$28.1B respectively due to Trump's tariffs.

Market May Drop Without 'Trump Put'

Experts warn that the absence of the perceived "Trump put" or "Fed put" could trigger a significant market downturn (ETF-S&P 500(SPY.US) PowerShares QQQ Trust,Series 1(QQQ.US) ). Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the Fed's dual mandate, acknowledging economic impact from tariffs but stating it's too soon to determine monetary policy path.

US Yield Curve Steepens

The US Treasury yield curve steepened to 45 basis points, the largest since May 2022, as stock futures fell amid bets on aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next month and a 116 basis point reduction by year-end.

BlackRock CEO Warns US Manufacturing Revival Hurdles

BlackRock, Inc.(BLK.US)  CEO Larry Fink warns US manufacturing revival faces labor shortages and flawed immigration policy, impacting agriculture and construction sectors, with inflationary effects on the economy.

III. Stocks To Watch

S&P500 Dropped 9.1%; Tech Stocks Hit Hard

S&P 500 INDEX(SPX.US)  tumbled about 9.1% last week (Mar 31-Apr 4) amid macro and supply chain uncertainty due to Trump's tariffs and retaliatory measures. Large-cap tech stocks were among the worst performers.

CEOs Consider Speaking Out On Trump Tariffs

Many US CEOs are considering speaking out against Trump's tariff policy as the stock market has declined significantly. A survey at the Yale University CEO Summit showed that 44% believe they should speak out when the market drops 20%. Some executives have privately expressed their dissatisfaction with the tariff policy but are hesitant to do so publicly to avoid angering Trump. Musk, an adviser to Trump, appeared to distance himself from the White House's trade war stance on social media.

Ark Invest Trades In Major Stocks

Cathie Wood's Ark Invest buys Amazon.com, Inc.(AMZN.US) , Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN.US) , CRISPR Therapeutics AG(CRSP.US) , Beam Therapeutics(BEAM.US) , MercadoLibre, Inc.(MELI.US) , Repare Therapeutics(RPTX.US)  shares; sells UiPath, Inc.(PATH.US) , Roblox Corp. Class A(RBLX.US)  shares worth millions.

AI Boosts Optical Industry TAM to US$30B by 2029

The rising importance of AI is driving growth in the optical industry, with total addressable market projected to reach US$30 billion by 2029. Broadcom Limited(AVGO.US) , Coherent, Inc.(COHR.US) , and Marvell Technology Group Ltd.(MRVL.US)  among top picks by BofA Securities analyst Vivek Arya, who remains confident in pluggable growth despite CPO delays.

Meta Unveils Llama 4 AI Models

Meta Platforms(META.US)  unveils Llama 4 Scout and Maverick models, 17 billion parameter AI software with mixture of experts architecture, challenging ChatGPT 4 and Google's Gemini.

Apple Analyst Sees Buy Opportunity

Needham analyst Laura Martin maintains Buy rating on Apple Inc.(AAPL.US)  with US$260 price target despite recent 10% drop due to tariffs, warning EPS could fall >$2 if no exemption granted.

Apple Stock: Death Cross Buying Opportunity?

Apple Inc.(AAPL.US)  stock faces near-term volatility with a death cross technical sign, but long-term data suggests it could be a compelling buying opportunity with a historical 80% chance of rising three months to a year later. Aggressive traders may consider a bear put spread for May 2 expiration, while long-side traders may wait for a rebound effect with a bull call spread for July 18 expiration.

Shell Cuts Q1 LNG Production Forecast

Shell PLC(SHEL.US)  cuts its Q1 LNG production forecast to 6.4-6.8 mln mt from 6.6-7.2 mln mt due to cyclones in Australia and unplanned maintenance. Trading performance at gas division expected to be in line with previous quarter.

Analysts' Diverse Opinions On LULU Stock

Lululemon Athletica Inc(LULU.US)  has received mixed analyst ratings over the past three months with an average 12-month price target of US$401.68, down 3.18% from the prior average.

IV. Calendar

Day's Notable Event(s):