US Market Preview | Fed Decision Tonight — Futures Positions at Record High; SK Hynix Rebuts AI Investment Slowdown Concerns; Microsoft, Meta Report Post-Market

Procter & Gamble Company
Nocera, Inc.
Autonomix Medical, Inc.
T3 Defense Inc.
Star Fashion Culture Holdings Ltd.

Procter & Gamble Company

PG

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Nocera, Inc.

NCRA

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Autonomix Medical, Inc.

AMIX

0.00

T3 Defense Inc.

DFNS

0.00

Star Fashion Culture Holdings Ltd.

STFS

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As of 03:32 PM Riyadh time, S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures fell Wednesday, ahead of the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate decision. S&P 500 futures were down 6.5 points, or 0.09%, while Nasdaq-100 futures lost 47.75 points, or 0.17%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 380 points, or 0.72%, weighed down in part by a revenue miss from Procter & Gamble Company(PG.US)

IndexChangeChange%
S&P 500 Futures-6.5-0.09%
Nasdaq 100 Futures-47.75-0.17%
Dow Jones Futures-380.00-0.72%

Investors are looking ahead to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and subsequent press conference with Chairman Kevin Warsh on Wednesday afternoon. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a nearly 70% likelihood that the central bank holds rates steady at the current target range of 3.5% to 3.75%, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

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As of 03:20 PM Riyadh Time, top pre-market movements are as follows:

Change | Price(US$)

Ticker 
(🌙 means "Shariah Compliant")

86.0% | 2.66

Nocera, Inc.(NCRA.US)

64.3% | 4.52

🌙 Autonomix Medical, Inc.(AMIX.US)

48.0% | 35.52

T3 Defense Inc.(DFNS.US)

28.9% | 4.68

🌙 Star Fashion Culture Holdings Ltd.(STFS.US)

28.7% | 3.18

🌙 Global Mofy AI Limited(GMM.US)

26.4% | 5.28

Verra Mobility Corp. Class A(VRRM.US)

 Tariffs Threaten to Make Back-to-School Shopping Painful 

U.S. families could spend nearly $4,000 per child in the 2026-27 school year as higher tariffs and energy costs lifted a typical school-supplies basket 7.7% and a lunch basket 10.9% year over year, per a Groundwork Collaborative / The Century Foundation report. Makers feeling the squeeze include Newell Brands Inc.(NWL.US), Logitech International SA(LOGI.US) and ACCO Brands Corporation(ACCO.US), which cited tariff- and oil-driven price increases. 

Fed Faces "Epic" Rate Decision as Hike Odds Jump to 30% 

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his second policy decision since taking office at 2:00 AM Beijing time Thursday, with markets gripped by an "unprecedented" suspense. Just a month ago a July hold looked near-certain, but CME's FedWatch tool now prices a 25bp rate hike at 30%, up from 13% a week earlier; Citi calls this "the most divided moment since September 2024." Fed funds futures open interest hit a record 967,136 contracts Monday after 909,714 Friday. BMO data shows traders' average forecast error on the decision was just 2.4bps since 2015 — but this time consensus is anything but settled. 

South Korea Finance Minister Apologizes for Single-Stock Leveraged ETFs 

After two straight sessions of circuit breakers, Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol on Wednesday apologized for launching single-stock leveraged ETFs "without prudent consideration." The KOSPI swung as much as 12% lower intraday before paring to about 6% down; bellwether SK Hynix closed down roughly 10% after an intraday record drop of 17% following its earnings. 

JPMorgan: Korea Leveraged-ETF Unwind Nearly Complete 

JPMorgan says the violent deleveraging since mid-June is essentially done, with hedge funds having executed about 90% of their selling and ratios back to more acceptable levels. Strategists argue Korea positioning now looks "attractive" on low valuations and solid earnings momentum; leveraged-ETF assets have fallen to $17 billion from heavy earlier inflows. 

China MFA Criticizes US Import Curbs on Advanced Robots 

Responding to the US FCC's import restrictions on foreign-made advanced robots — including humanoid robots where China holds a dominant position — Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said Wednesday that Beijing "firmly opposes" Washington broadening national-security concepts to suppress Chinese firms, warning that protectionism only hurts US businesses and consumers.

JPMorgan: Periodic AI Bubble Is "Normal"; China Holds Four Edges 

JPMorgan's Greater China economics head said a periodic AI bubble during the technology's advance is normal, as markets have front-run years of future earnings across compute and semiconductor supply chains. Doubts over capex returns, fundamentals, inference costs and monetization can trigger normal pullbacks, he noted, adding that China holds advantages in four areas. Seagate Tops Q4 on AI Storage Boom, Guides Higher 

Seagate Technology Holdings PLC(STX.US)  rose 5.28% to $786.75 in premarket Wednesday after fiscal Q4 beat estimates on every line: adjusted EPS of $5.71 vs. $5.09, revenue of $3.63B vs. $3.49B, and a record adjusted gross margin of 52.7% (up 570 bps). Data-center customers drove 89% of exabyte shipments, and Q3 revenue guidance of roughly $4.0B implies about 56% YoY growth. 

Microsoft and Meta Earnings: After Billions in AI Spending, Markets Await Payoff

The AI infrastructure investment boom enters a key test this week as Microsoft Corporation(MSFT.US)  and Meta Platforms(META.US)  prepare to report quarterly results on July 29. Investor focus has shifted from whether companies are still pouring money into AI to whether the massive capital outlays are translating into revenue growth, margin expansion, and shareholder returns. The outcomes are likely to influence broader market sentiment on AI monetization.

Amphenol Raises Q3 Guidance 

Amphenol Corporation Class A(APH.US)  guided Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.40-$1.42 versus $1.27 consensus and sales of $9.3B-$9.4B versus $8.683B expected, pointing to continued strength across its interconnect portfolio. 

Visa Beats on Volume, Strikes Reassuring Consumer Tone 

Visa(V.US)  posted fiscal Q3 adjusted EPS of $3.32 vs. $3.23 and revenue of $11.63B vs. $11.39B, with total payments volume topping $4 trillion for the first time. CFO Chris Suh said spending remains strong across both discretionary and staples with no signs of weakness among lower-spend consumers. Shares eased 0.90% to $363.30 premarket. 

Teradyne Surges 7% as AI Test Demand Drives Q2 Beat 

Teradyne, Inc.(TER.US)  jumped more than 7% in premarket after Q2 revenue of $1.33B more than doubled year over year and beat the $1.22B estimate, while adjusted EPS of $2.47 topped the $2.09 consensus. Net income reached $374.5M versus $78.4M a year earlier. The company cited sustained semiconductor test demand from AI chips, advanced packaging and wafer-cap equipment investment, and guided Q3 revenue of $1.2B-$1.3B with EPS of $1.85-$2.15, both above prior expectations. 

KLA Beats Q4 but Shares Fall 9% Preemarket 

KLA(KLAC.US)  reported fiscal Q4 revenue up 15% to $3.66B, ahead of the $3.6B estimate, with adjusted EPS of $1.05 versus $1.00. For fiscal Q1 2027 it guided revenue of $3.8B-$4.2B (midpoint $4.0B vs. $3.93B expected) and EPS of $1.06-$1.26 (midpoint $1.16 vs. $1.14), with adjusted gross margin near 62.5%. Despite the double beat, shares dropped about 9% in premarket. 

Bloom Energy Jumps 9% on Record Quarter, Raised Guidance 

BLOOM ENERGY CORP(BE.US)  rallied more than 9% premarket after Q2 revenue surged 165% to $1.065B, crushing the $826M estimate and marking its first quarter above $1B; EPS of $0.78 jumped 680% from a year earlier and beat the $0.41 FactSet consensus. Citing AI-infrastructure power demand, the company lifted its 2026 revenue guidance to $3.9B-$4.2B and EPS to $2.55-$2.85. 

Vertiv Beats on EPS, Lifts Full-Year View Despite Revenue Miss 

VERTIV HOLDINGS LLC(VRT.US)  posted Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.52 versus $0.95 a year earlier and above the $1.42 consensus, though revenue of $3.27B (+24% YoY) came in just below the $3.38B estimate. The data-infrastructure firm raised its fiscal-2026 guidance to EPS of $6.65-$6.75 (from $6.30-$6.40) on revenue of $13.8B-$14.0B (from $13.5B-$14.0B). 

Procter & Gamble Slips 3% as FY27 Guidance Disappoints 

Procter & Gamble Company(PG.US)  fell more than 3% premarket after fiscal Q4 core EPS of $1.43 edged the $1.41 estimate and net sales of $21.20B narrowly missed the $21.34B view. For fiscal 2027 it guided core EPS of $6.89-$7.11 versus the $7.02 consensus with 0%-3% growth, and organic sales of 1%-3% versus the 2.44% expected.

Riyadh TimeEventConsensusForecast
02:00 PMUS MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (JUL 24)
05:30 PMUS EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (JUL 24)-1.75M
05:30 PMUS EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (JUL 24)-1.09M
09:00 PMUS Fed Interest Rate Decision3.75%3.75%
09:30 PMUS Fed Press Conference