September 11, 2025

As we approach the highly anticipated release of US August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, financial institutions across the globe have published their forecasts, painting a picture of rising inflationary pressures that could significantly impact Federal Reserve policy decisions.

Key Market Expectations

The consensus among major financial institutions suggests a notable uptick in inflation metrics compared to July figures. Here's what the market is anticipating:

Overall CPI Annual Rate (Non-Seasonally Adjusted)

• Previous: +2.7%
• Market Consensus: +2.9%

Overall CPI Monthly Rate (Seasonally Adjusted)

• Previous: +0.2%
• Market Consensus: +0.3%

Core CPI Annual Rate (Non-Seasonally Adjusted)

• Previous: +3.1%
• Market Consensus: +3.1%

Core CPI Monthly Rate (Seasonally Adjusted)

• Previous: +0.3%
• Market Consensus: +0.3%

Institutional Forecasting Breakdown

Overall CPI Annual Rate Predictions

The vast majority of institutions are aligned around a +2.9% annual inflation rate, representing a 20 basis point increase from July's +2.7% reading. This consensus includes major players such as:

Forecasting +2.9%: ANZ Bank, BNP Paribas, Bank of America, Barclays, TD Bank, Capital Economics, Société Générale, Citigroup, DBS Bank, Danske Bank, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Helaba Bank, ING, JPMorgan Chase, Mizuho Bank, Nomura Securities, Sumitomo Mitsui, Lloyds Bank, UniCredit, Standard Chartered, Scotiabank, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Stifel, TD Securities, and UBS Group.

More Conservative Outlook (+2.8%): Only Sparta Securities stands out with a slightly lower forecast.

Higher Inflation Expectations (+3.0%): Berenberg Bank, Commonwealth Bank, ABN AMRO, and Royal Bank of Canada project the highest inflation reading.

Monthly CPI Rate Forecasts

For the seasonally adjusted monthly rate, institutions are split between +0.3% and +0.4% predictions:

Forecasting +0.3%: Bank of America, TD Bank, Capital Economics, Lloyds Bank, Daiwa Capital, HSBC, Sumitomo Mitsui, Danske Bank, ING, Mizuho Bank, Commerzbank, Jefferies, Moody's Analytics, Nomura Securities, Oxford Economics, Helaba Bank, Scotiabank, Société Générale, Standard Chartered, Sparta Securities, UniCredit, Wells Fargo, and Westpac Banking.

Forecasting +0.4%: Barclays, BNP Paribas, ABN AMRO, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Royal Bank of Canada, and Morgan Stanley expect a stronger monthly reading.

Core CPI: Stability Expected

Annual Core CPI Outlook

Core CPI annual rates show more variation in forecasts, though the consensus remains at +3.1%:

Lower Expectations (+3.0%): Sparta Securities, HSBC, and Société Générale anticipate some cooling in core inflation.

Consensus View (+3.1%): The majority of institutions, including ABN AMRO, Danske Bank, BNP Paribas, Berenberg Bank, Bank of America, Helaba Bank, TD Bank, Capital Economics, Citigroup, Lloyds Bank, Dekabank, Goldman Sachs, Commonwealth Bank, Morgan Stanley, ING, JPMorgan Chase, Mizuho Bank, Monex Group, Nomura Securities, Sumitomo Mitsui, TD Securities, Bank of Montreal, UBS Group, UniCredit, and Wells Fargo.

Monthly Core CPI Projections

The monthly core CPI rate shows a clear consensus around +0.3%, with only a few institutions expecting +0.4%:

Majority Consensus (+0.3%): ABN AMRO, ANZ Bank, BNP Paribas, Jefferies, TD Bank, Capital Economics, Citigroup, Lloyds Bank, Commerzbank, Daiwa Capital, Dekabank, Danske Bank, HSBC, ING, JPMorgan Chase, Deutsche Bank, Commonwealth Bank, Mizuho Bank, Bank of America, Helaba Bank, Moody's Analytics, Nomura Securities, Oxford Economics, Sparta Securities, Société Générale, Standard Chartered, UBS Group, and Santander Bank.

Higher Monthly Expectations (+0.4%): Goldman Sachs, Sumitomo Mitsui, TD Securities, and Morgan Stanley stand out with more hawkish projections.