XPeng (NYSE:XPEV) is back in focus after reporting March deliveries of 27,415 vehicles, an 80% jump from the prior month, alongside fresh plans for new manufacturing capacity in Thailand and a three year Latin America push.

Despite the upbeat delivery and expansion headlines, XPeng’s recent share price performance has been mixed. The 1 day share price return of 3.34% and 7 day return of 5.55% contrast with a 30 day share price return of 4.75% and a year to date share price return of 10.67%. Meanwhile, the 3 year total shareholder return of 95.61% and 1 year total shareholder return close to flat suggest longer term holders have experienced a very different ride compared with short term traders.

If you are looking beyond XPeng and want to see which other EV and automation names are gaining attention, this could be a good moment to check out 34 robotics and automation stocks

XPeng’s shares have lagged in recent months, even as deliveries, international plans and ESG credentials keep building. This raises the real question for you: is this a mispriced growth story, or is the market already factoring in the road ahead?

Most Popular Narrative: 35.2% Undervalued

XPeng's most followed narrative puts fair value at $28.16 against a last close of $18.25, which implies a sizeable valuation gap that hinges on ambitious growth and profitability shifts.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $26.291 for XPeng based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $33.26, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $18.27.

Want to see what has to change for XPeng to grow into this valuation gap? The core narrative leans heavily on faster revenue expansion, rising margins and a richer future earnings multiple that looks more like a software name instead of a traditional automaker.

Result: Fair Value of $28.16 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this depends on XPeng eventually moving past its current net losses and managing fierce EV price competition at home, particularly as capital and expansion demands remain high.

Another Way To Look At XPeng’s Valuation

The main narrative sees XPeng as undervalued, but the simple sales based yardstick tells a different story. The current P/S of 1.6x sits above the US Auto industry at 0.7x and above a fair ratio of 1.3x. This suggests less of a clear bargain and more valuation risk. So which signal do you put more weight on?

To stress test this sales based view against your own expectations, it helps to see how the numbers stack up across peers and that fair ratio the market could move toward. You can then decide whether the premium feels justified or stretched, See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

The split view on XPeng’s value runs through this whole story, so treat it as a prompt to move fast, test the numbers yourself, and then pressure test the optimistic angle by checking the 2 key rewards

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.